The 2024 election and your portfolio
Here’s a look at what’s at stake nationally in the November 5 election, analysis of historical stock market trends in election years, and portfolio considerations for long- and short-term investors.
What’s at stake—election 2024
Voters will choose a president and decide the makeup of the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate.
Important disclosures
1 Two special elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California to fill the temporary vacancy created by Democrat Diane Feinstein's September 29, 2023, death and one in Nebraska, following Republican Ben Sasse’s January 8, 2023, resignation.
Who's in power now?
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House; Democrats hold a slimmer edge in the Senate and they control the White House.
In the House
Republicans have a 217-212 majority, with six vacancies²
In the Senate
A 51–49 split, with Democrats narrowly maintaining control, owing to three independent senators who caucus with Democrats, effectively creating a majority³
2 "U.S. House of Representatives Press Gallery," pressgallery.house.gov, 5/1/24. 3 "U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery," periodicalpress.senate.gov, 5/1/24.
Key 2024 election dates
- January 15–June 8: state presidential primaries and caucuses
- July 15–18: Republican National Convention, Milwaukee
- August 19–22: Democratic National Convention, Chicago
- November 5: Election Day
- January 3, 2025: 119th Congress convenes
- January 20, 2025: 60th presidential inauguration
Elections and market history
Financial markets have generally shown resilience throughout four-year presidential election cycles, with changes in political party control of the White House and Congress appearing to have little discernible difference on long-term stock market performance. While election seasons can stir up strong emotions in investors and drive market volatility, trying to time the markets or make investment decisions based on perceived election trends could prove unwise versus simply investing for the long term.
Election cycles
In four-year election cycles, stock performance has typically been best in the year prior to a presidential election
S&P 500 Index performance, 1928–2023
Party control
How stocks have performed under six different political scenarios
Average annual returns of the S&P 500 Index when different political parties were in power, 1928–2023 (%)
Control of the White House
Stocks have risen over the long term no matter which party has been in the White House
Growth of a hypothetical $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index, 1/31/28–12/31/23
Election- vs. nonelection years
Relative to nonelection years, stocks have tended to lag prior to Election Day but come back following the vote
Cumulative average returns of the S&P 500 Index during 18-month periods before and after presidential and midterm elections versus nonelection periods, 1/31/28–12/31/23 (%)
60/40 portfolios
60/40 stock-bond portfolio performance has slightly lagged in presidential election years vs. nonelection years
Annual returns of a 60/40 portfolio, 1954–2023 (%)
Election volatility
Stock market volatility has been modest before and after recent presidential elections—with some exceptions
Cboe Volatility Index 30-day moving average in the 100 days before and after U.S. presidential elections, 1992–2020
Important disclosures
Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The information provided does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.
All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients and prospects should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Neither Manulife Investment Management, nor any of its affiliates or representatives (collectively “Manulife Investment Management”) is providing tax, investment or legal advice.
This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Investment Management. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Investment Management does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Investment Management disclaims any responsibility to update such information.
Manulife Investment Management shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes, does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Investment Management to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach, and is no indication of trading intent in any fund or account managed by Manulife Investment Management. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Unless otherwise specified, all data is sourced from Manulife Investment Management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A widespread health crisis such as a global pandemic could cause substantial market volatility, exchange-trading suspensions and closures, and affect portfolio performance. For example, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in significant disruptions to global business activity. The impact of a health crisis and other epidemics and pandemics that may arise in the future, could affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the present time. A health crisis may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and economic risks. Any such impact could adversely affect the portfolio’s performance, resulting in losses to your investment.
This material has not been reviewed by, and is not registered with, any securities or other regulatory authority, and may, where appropriate, be distributed by Manulife Investment Management and its subsidiaries and affiliates, which includes the John Hancock Investment Management brand.
Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates under license.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.